Pakistan is withering

Pakistan is withering. Every indication is that the Pakistani state is crumbling. Even cursory look at the following events make it clear that India should prepare for the eventual violent disintegration of Pakistan. From a humanitarian perspective, the preparation should include gearing up to meet with the crisis of huge refugee influx. However, from an overall strategic perspective the preparation should focus on ensuring the current Pakistani land and other strategic/tactical assets do not fall into enemy’s hand.

  • Perpetual war – Current Pakistani state, very poor and backward, is already fighting wars in the following fronts: (1) against India along the LOC, (2) against Taliban in NWFP, (3) Against NATO forces (for Taliban) – surreptitiously- to retain their perceived Afghanistan lever, (4) against separatists in Balochistan, (5) Against Shia’s in Northern areas, (6) Against Hazara Shia’s in Quetta, (7) Against Hindus/Sikhs/Christians/Ahmadiya’s all over the country, and, most dangerously, (8) against Jihadi’s all over the country. It is not a question of whether Pakistan will wither, but only when it will disintegrate.
  • Internally ‘bankrupt’ – whether it is economy, or other spheres such as political processes, education, intellectual development, judiciary, cultural progression, least of all ‘rule of law’, Pakistan is internally bankrupt. Institutions have crumbled owing to relentless Jihadi and military onslaught of decades. Governance, already awful, is abdicating. PM Shariff ensuring funding to terrorists is just one example. No country can remain viable with such internal bankruptcy.
  • Patron states are exhausted – For a short period of time, between 1962 to 1965, Pakistan had tried to cultivate erstwhile USSR as its patron state. Other than that, Pakistan has been a client state of the USA and China. Now, patron states can not improve internal governance or human development indices in the client state. Hence, the patron-client relationships did not help Pakistan in becoming stronger as a society. However, patron states can provide crucial military hardware/platform, which the USA and China did for a long time. Besides, during crucial moments, the USA and China have also provided political and diplomatic support to Pakistan. These have helped Pakistan to stay afloat. Now, however, the USA is exhausted. It is crystal clear from the ongoing federal government shutdown that the internal political rivalry has seriously eroded the credibility of the USA. On the other hand, there are over 10,000 internal disturbances and riots in China every year, all of which are crushed ruthlessly by the despotic government. China is the only country in the world with higher internal security budget than defense budget. In spite of 63 years of most brutal repression, Tibet is still simmering with tension. China’s objective in arming Pakistan is at risk, the investments are at risk of being totally counter-productive, because India is still there, and if anything, stronger. It is only a matter of time the patron states wash off their hands.
  • US pull-out from Afghanistan in 2014 – It is obvious that Pakistan will, via the Taliban proxy, start controlling Afghanistan again. In effect it means Jihadi wave unleashed against India. However, it also means Pakistan significantly upgrading their Jihad factory. The effects of Gen. Zia-Ul_Haq’s policy of ‘Jihadisation’ of Pakistan is there for all to see. A further quantitative and qualitative upgrade of Jihad in Pakistan will most probably break the already-slender thread of Pakistani state authority.
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